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Updates: 5 May 2009:

Study materials:

In the 1918–1919 pandemic, a first or spring wave began in March 1918 and spread unevenly through the United States, Europe, and possibly Asia over the next 6 months (Figure 1). Illness rates were high, but death rates in most locales were not appreciably above normal. A second or fall wave spread globally from September to November 1918 and was highly fatal. In many nations, a third wave occurred in early 1919 (21). Clinical similarities led contemporary observers to conclude initially that they were observing the same disease in the successive waves. The milder forms of illness in all 3 waves were identical and typical of influenza seen in the 1889 pandemic and in prior interpandemic years. In retrospect, even the rapid progressions from uncomplicated influenza infections to fatal pneumonia, a hallmark of the 1918–1919 fall and winter waves, had been noted in the relatively few severe spring wave cases. The differences between the waves thus seemed to be primarily in the much higher frequency of complicated, severe, and fatal cases in the last 2 waves. -- CDC: 1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics:*Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Rockville, Maryland, USA; and †National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA

Policy Progress during the last 24 hours:

The head of the World Health Organization warned in a newspaper interview that swine flu may re-emerge stronger than ever even if the current outbreak appears to be declining. Margaret Chan told Britain's Financial Times that an apparent decline in mortality rates did not mean the pandemic was coming to an end and a second wave may strike "with a vengeance." "If it's going to happen it would be the biggest of all outbreaks the world has faced in the 21st century," the business daily quoted her as saying.
-- WHO chief warns of second wave of swine flu, AFP, 4 May 2009.

Crucial global surveillance of animal disease could be revised to include swine influenza in pigs because of its potential risk to human health, a World Health Organisation expert said Monday.... Phase one of the WHO pandemic flu alert system adopted just four years ago should be triggered when a potentially dangerous virus is detected among animals but no infections are reported in humans. With the new swine flu virus, the WHO jumped straight into phase four very swiftly after the outbreak was first announced in Mexico and the United States, because sustained human to human spread had been established. -- Permanent watch on pigs may be needed for flu, AFP, 4 May 2009.

ROME, May 4 (Xinhua) -- The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on Monday that national authorities and farmers should carefully monitor pigs and investigate any possible occurrences of influenza-like symptoms in domestic animals.
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 FAO urges countries to closely monitor A/H1N1 in pigs: www.chinaview.cn,  2009-05-05 08:01:42
 

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