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4 May 2009
IDIN: Pathobiologics International:
Biodefense Threat
Analysis & Communication Center
Subject: Pandemic Influenza:
Contingency Planning Discussion
As per request for an updated regarding Novel A/H1N1 (Swine Flu):
1. The name Swine Flu (Novel A/H1N1) has been a controversial topic but
it is important to know that the reason why it was called "Swine Flu" is
because influenza viruses rarely jump from swine to humans with efficient
transmission, the last time this happened was 1918. See: Novel A/H1N1: WHO Fact Sheet.
Note: The Novel A/H1N1: WHO Fact Sheet is in error stating that H1N1
virus was first isolated in the 1930's, while H1N1 was the cauative factor
associated with the 1918 Pandemic:
Their research supports the hypothesis that the 1918 pandemic influenza
virus and the virus causing the swine flu were the same. Richt said the virus
was able to infect and replicate in swine and cause mild respiratory disease.
The 1918 virus spread through the pig population, adapted to the swine and
resulted in the current lineage of the H1N1 swine influenza viruses. The
researchers' study is published in the May 2009 Journal of Virology. -- 1918 Flu Resulted In Current Lineage Of H1N1 Swine Influenza
Viruses: Science Daily, 1 May 2009.
2. This strain has now demonstrated the capacity to be transmitted from
Human to Swine. (1) suspect farm worker returns
from Mexico begins working April 14, (2) 10 days later pigs exhibiting symptoms
and (3) currently herd of 2,200 pigs infected. See: Alberta
pig farm under flu quarantine: Calgary Herald,
3 May 2009; WHO urges close watch on farms for new swine flu: AFP,
3 May 2009.
Note: Swine are considered the mixing vessel, where reassortment and new
strains can evolve... this is a natural process that has always occurred.
The concern is not swine food production facilities with high biosecurity,
but farms in the global regions with severe poverty (over 3 billion
of the earths population) and no public health infrastructure. We
are still awaiting the test results from pigs on the small back yard farms
in the region associated with ground zero in Mexico.
In the context of surveillance, containment and control, our objective
to realize access to molecular diagnostics capability to within 4 hours
of any global population demographic with satellite links to reference labs
and bioinformatics capability.
3. As this new strain (Novel A/H1N1) spreads and is transmitted
to swine in regions across the globe with endemic high consequence strains
in the ecosystem, the capacity for reassortment rises as does the evolution
of a more pathogenic strain. Recombination analytics, concerns
regarding geographic surveillance encompass:
4. If
new highly pathogenic recombinant strain(s) evolve (Swine to Human with efficient
Human to Human transmission), then the entire global emerging infectious
disease picture will exponentially become more complicated. Ex. If
a new strain picked up the characteristics of Pandemic H5N1 or West Nile virus,
we could watch migratory birds contribute to global spread. Following
the initial outbreak of West Nile Virus in New York City, the virus spread
throughout North America by migratory birds within two years.
Collaborative efforts between veterinary and human medicine for surveillance,
containment and control of this WHO Level 5 Pandemic Strain of Novel A/H1N1
(Swine Flu), is a priority.
Related:
Stephen M. Apatow
Founder, Director of Research and Development
Pathobiologics
International
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