-------- Original Message --------
| Subject:
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IVPHC: H1N1 Spread into Asia [Edited] |
| Date:
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Thu, 30 Apr 2009 17:24:11 -0700 |
| From:
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"Stephen M. Apatow" <s.m.apatow@pathobiologics.org> |
| To:
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ivphc.wg@pathobiologics.org |
Dear
Colleagues:
The worlds top experts, that are focused on the challenges presented by
recombination, as this pathogen spreads into H5N1 Endemic regions in
Asia:
As Swine Flu Spreads, Its Chances to Mutate Increase"
(ScienceNOW, Daily News, 29 April 2009)
TOKYO--Swine flu has reached Asia, with South Korea reporting
its first suspected case yesterday. Like the vast majority of other cases
outside of Mexico so far, it is mild, but virologist Kennedy Shortridge warns
that is no reason for complacency. He says that the farther the virus spreads,
the more chance it will mix, or reassort, with other flu viruses in circulation
and turn into something more lethal. "The prospects for change [in the virus]
are considerable and worrying," he says.
Shortridge
is a professor emeritus at the University of Hong Kong, where he led investigations
into the initial emergence of H5N1 avian influenza in 1997, when it killed
six of the 18 people it infected. The city squelched that outbreak by slaughtering
all 1.4 million chickens and ducks in the territory. H5N1 re-emerged in 2003
and since then has claimed 257 lives while devastating poultry flocks throughout
much of Asia and parts of Africa. Shortridge has long advocated global cooperation
in the surveillance of circulating flu viruses to spot emerging new strains
so that public health officials could plan a response and drug companies could
get a head start on making vaccines.
He was
among the first to suggest that pigs might act as mixing vessels for new
combinations of viruses. And the swine flu, now spreading from Mexico, "fits
into the mixing vessel hypothesis," he says.
Analysis
of flu specimens by Canada's National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg
and at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Georgia,
have found that the virus is made up of pieces of human, swine, and avian
viruses from North America, Europe, and Asia. The mixture "gives an order
of complexity we really don't understand at this point," Shortridge says.
In particular,
he says he is concerned that this patched-together virus might not be stable
and could easily reassort with other viruses encountered in a human or animal
host. The virus has now spread to Asia, where the H5N1 virus is circulating.
Shortridge says there are strains of human H1N1 in circulation in many areas
that are resistant to Tamiflu, the drug of choice for treating the disease
in humans. He speculates that swapping one or more genes among these viruses
could result in a virus that is more pathogenic or more easily passed from
person to person or both.
As a precaution,
Shortridge suggests sequencing as many viral samples as quickly as possible
to watch for any telltale changes in the virus--a massive job requiring worldwide
cooperation. He says such cooperation seems to be off to a good start, thanks
to the experience of dealing with the 2003 SARS crisis and recent efforts
to prepare for an influenza pandemic. "There is a success story in this in
that the world is alert" to the possibility of a pandemic, he says. Still,
he adds, even better collaboration and communication will be required in
the face of a threat that could change overnight.
Once again
I emphasize, these emerging infectious microbial challenges are important
aspects of the co-infection challenge in both veterinary and human public
health. At Los Alamos (Future of Biodetection Systems: 2006), a key topic discussed
in the breakaway group led by Hong Cai and myself (Final Workshop Analysis: Pg. 11-13) , was the importance
of access to microarray capability, analysis of the sample and accessible
genomic level bioinformatics information broken down for clinical interpretation.
Related:
Stephen M. Apatow
Founder, Director of Research and Development
Pathobiologics
International
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