| Warnings & Predictions: |
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| • | Sept,
2000: ‘Expert Elicitation
Workshop on the Risk of |
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| Introduction
of FMD to Europe’, Bulgaria: |
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| – | John
Ryan identified a combination of three major factors in |
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| a
Casandra warning of imminent danger: |
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| • | Intensified
farming |
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| • | Increased
animal movements |
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| • | Virulent
new strain |
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| – | Nick
Knowles, IAH, Pirbright, UK showed that the FMDv Pan |
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| Asia
type O had infected numerous countries that had been |
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| free
for decades … “a major threat.” |
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| (source: Sunday
Times, 23 Dec ’01) |